Publishers expect search traffic to drop by more than 40%

The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism issued its report Annual forecast report Based on a survey of 280 senior media leaders in 51 countries and territories.

The report notes that publishers are preparing for two potential threats: generative AI tools, and creators who engage audiences with personality-driven formats.

Note that the Reuters Institute poll reflects a strategic group of senior leaders. It is not a representative sample of the entire industry.

What the report found

Search traffic is the biggest near-term concern

Survey respondents expect search engine traffic to decline by more than 40% over the next three years as AI-based answers expand.

The report cites Chartbeat data showing that overall Google search traffic to hundreds of news sites has already begun to decline. Lifestyle-focused publishers say they’ve been particularly hard hit by Google’s rollout of AI Overviews.

This comes on top of the platform’s long-term declines. The report indicates that referral traffic to news sites from Facebook decreased by 43% over the past three years, while referrals from X decreased by 46% during the same period.

Publishers plan to invest in differentiation

In response to the pressure of traffic and AI summarization, publishers say they will invest more in original investigations, field reporting, contextual analysis, and human stories.

Leaders surveyed say they plan to cut back on service journalism and permanent content, which many expect AI-powered chatbots to commoditize.

High video distribution and off-platform

Publishers expect to invest more in video, including “watch tabs,” and more in audio formats like podcasts. Text output is less priority.

In terms of distribution, YouTube is the main off-platform channel mentioned in the report, along with TikTok and Instagram.

Publishers are also trying to figure out how to navigate distribution through AI platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Perplexity.

Subscriptions are leading, and licensing is growing

For commercial publishers, paid content such as subscriptions and memberships is the primary focus. There is also a renewed interest in native advertising and live events as publishers look for revenue beyond traditional display advertising.

Publishers are also looking into licensing and other platform payments. The report notes that interest in platform financing has nearly doubled over the past two years as AI companies have begun offering large deals.

Why is this important?

I’ve seen publishers navigate traffic jams before. When Facebook algorithm changes happened in 2018, the industry scrambled, and most publishers eventually adjusted by focusing more on search. Search was supposed to be the fixed channel.

This assumption is what this report challenges. The projected 40%+ decline over three years has become a planning number that impacts budgets, headcount, and content strategy.

Changing the content mix deserves attention. When 280 senior media leaders say they will cut back on service journalism and perpetual content, they are referring to pages they believe will continue to drive traffic in an AI summary environment. Original reports and analysis remain because chatbots cannot replicate them. Information about goods does not do this, because it can be collected without a single click.

The doubling of interest in licensing deals in two years is another number that jumped out to me. When AI companies started writing checks, the conversation changed from “should we license” to “what leverage do we have.”

This report is useful as a benchmark for positioning the top of the industry, even if individual results vary.